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Jennifer Zickerman. But in the next decade or two, there is likely to be a significant amount of technological innovation in machine intelligence and personal assistants that takes a real swipe out of the jobs we want humans to have in education, health care, transportation, agriculture and public safety.

As for the skills for the employed fraction of advanced countries, I think they will be difficult to teach. Nathaniel Borenstein. Algorithms, automation and robotics will result in capital no longer needing labor to progress the economic agenda.

Labor becomes, in many ways, surplus to economic requirements. By the time the training programs are widely available, the required skills will no longer be required. The whole emphasis of training must now be directed towards personal life skills development rather than the traditional working career-based approach. There is also the massive sociological economic impact of general automation and AI that must be addressed to redistribute wealth and focus life skills at lifelong learning.

We urgently need to explore how to distribute the increasing wealth of complex goods and services our civilization produces to a populace that will be increasingly jobless in the traditional sense. The current trend of concentrating wealth in the hands of a diminishing number of ultra-rich individuals is unsustainable. All of this while dealing with the destabilizing effects of climate change and the adaptations necessary to mitigate its worst impacts. Some of these experts projected further out into the future, imagining a world where the machines themselves learn and overtake core human emotional and cognitive capacities.

Timothy C. This section features responses by several more of the many top analysts who participated in this canvassing. Following this wide-ranging set of comments on the topic, a much more expansive set of quotations directly tied to the set of four themes begins on Page From the employer perspective, this type of learning will only grow.

The automation of human labor will grow significantly. And having a workforce trained in discrete and atomizable bits of skills will be seen as a benefit by employers.

This of course is a terrible, soulless, insecure life for the workers, but since when did that really change anything? There will also be a parallel call for benefits, professional development, and compensation that smooths out the rough patches in this on-demand labor life, but such efforts will lag behind the exploitation of said labor because big business has more resources and big tech moves too fast for human-scale responses of accountability and responsibility.

Look at Linux and open-source development. The world runs on both now, and they employ millions of human beings. Many, or most, of the new open-source programmers building and running our world today are self-taught, or teach each other, to a higher degree than they are educated by formal schooling.

Look at Khan Academy and the home-schooling movement, both of which in many ways outperform formal institutional education. This model for employment of self and others will also spread to other professions. The great educator John Taylor Gatto , who won many awards for his teaching and rarely obeyed curricular requirements, says nearly all attempts to reform education make it worse.

We are by nature learning animals. We are each also very different: both from each other and from who we were yesterday. As a society we need to take advantage of that, and nurture our natural hunger for knowledge and productive work while respecting and encouraging our diversity, a fundamental balancing feature of all nature, human and otherwise. But we will likely see a radical economic disruption in education — using new tools and means to learn and certify learning — and that is the way by which we will manage to train many more people in many new skills.

An earlier and more enduring focus on stats and statistical literacy — which can readily be taught using current affairs, for example, analyzing the poll numbers from elections, the claims made by climate change scientists, or even the excellent oral arguments in the Supreme Court Texas abortion law case — would impart skills that transferred well into IT, programming and, especially, security.

About , years ago, Earth experienced its first Cambrian Explosion — a period of rapid cellular evolution and diversification that resulted in the foundation of life as we know it today. We are clearly in the dawn of a new age, one that is marked not just by advanced machines but, rather, machines that are starting to learn how to think.

Soon, those machines that can think will augment humankind, helping to unlock our creative and industrial potential. Some of the workforce will find itself displaced by automation. That includes anyone whose primary job functions are transactional bank tellers, drivers, mortgage brokers.

However, there are many fields that will begin to work alongside smart machines: doctors, journalists, teachers. The most important skill of any future worker will be adaptability.

This current Cambrian Explosion of machines will mean diversification in our systems, our interfaces, our code. Workers who have the temperament and fortitude to quickly learn new menu screens, who can find information quickly, and the like will fare well. I do not see the wide-scale emergence of training programs during the next 10 years due to the emergence of smart machines alone.

The jury is very much out on the extent to which acquisition of knowledge and reasoning skills requires human interaction. We now have empirical evidence that a substantial percentage — half or more — can be gained through self-study using computer-assisted techniques.

The path forward for society as a whole is strewn with obstacles of self-interest, ignorance, flawed economics, etc. Here I want to focus on other areas. The issue is not just training but cultural re-evaluation of teaching and healing as highly respected skills.

Few of us make anything we use — from the building we live in to the objects we own — and these things are mostly manufactured as cheaply as possible, to be easily bought, discarded, and bought again, in a process of relentless acquisition that often brings little happiness. Very easily accessible learning for how to fix these things themselves and making it economically rewarding, in the case of a common good — is a simple, basic example of the kind of ubiquitous craft learning that at scale would be enormously valuable.

Some of this can be taught online — a key component is also online coordination. Certainly science and technology are important, but we need to refocus liberal education, not ignore it. History, in all its complexity.

Critical thinking — how to debate, how to recognize persuasive techniques, how to understand multiple perspectives, how to mediate between different viewpoints. Key skill: how to research, how to evaluate what you see and read.

Sites like Stack Overflow for software engineers demonstrate a new moral sense that learning in private is selfish. Public learning is becoming the norm. Instead, most focus will be on childhood education for the poorer sectors of the world. Udacity is a good example of the trajectory. After starting a company to pursue the idea, he pivoted, focusing specifically on skill-oriented education that is coupled directly to the job market. These need not be MOOCs. Even mobiles can be sources of education.

I hope we will see more opportunities arising for sharing this kind of knowledge. New online credential systems will first complement, then gradually replace the old ones. The skills of the future? Those are the skills a robot cannot master yet. Leadership, design, human meta communication, critical thinking, motivating, cooperating, innovating.

In my black-and-white moments I say: Skip all knowledge training in high schools. We make you better than a robot. We let you cooperate with robots. We build your self-trust. We turn you into a decent, polite, social person. And most importantly, we do not mix education with religion — never. The subject-matter-specific part of a B.

A large part of this time is spent not in a classroom but becoming fluent through monitored practice, including group work, internships and other high-intensity, high-interaction apprentice-like programs. There are possibilities for adding limited skill sets to otherwise qualified workers, e. Jobs that seem viable may fall victim to a surprising development in automation see, for example, filmmaking ; new categories of work may not last long enough to support large numbers of employees.

Automation and semi-automation e. Training is useful but not the end of education — only a kind of education. As for sipping: you need not know the name of every bear to know you should avoid bears. Yet the continual construction of knowledge and cultures requires more from us.

So far, training formally as in Kahn Academy and Lynda. No programmer or developer could keep up without the informal training of Stack Overflow. No need for debate. WPA3 is the newer — and best — encryption available, but both will work to scramble your information.

Older Router? If those are the only options listed, try updating your router software. Some routers come with preset passwords out of the box. The Wi-Fi network password : this is the one you use to connect your devices to the network. A unique and secure Wi-Fi network password prevents strangers from getting onto your network.

The router admin password : this is the one that lets you into the administrative side of the device. There, you can do things like change settings including the Wi-Fi network password.

If a hacker managed to log into the admin side of your router, the hacker could change the settings including your Wi-Fi password. That would undo any other security steps you may be taking. However, in ICON, the problem to be solved was not limited to the teaching of the „treadmill“ concept. ICON is also informative as to the relationship between the problem to be solved and existence of a reason to combine.

An assessment of whether a combination would render the device inoperable must not „ignore the modifications that one skilled in the art would make to a device borrowed from the prior art.

Agrizap, Inc. Woodstream Corp. The only difference between the claimed device and the prior art stationary pest control device was that the claimed device employed a resistive electrical switch, while the prior art device used a mechanical pressure switch. A resistive electrical switch was taught in two prior art patents, in the contexts of a hand-held pest control device and a cattle prod. In determining that the claimed invention was obvious, the Federal Circuit noted that „[t]he asserted claims simply substitute a resistive electrical switch for the mechanical pressure switch“ employed in the prior art device.

In this case, the prior art concerning the hand-held devices revealed that the function of the substituted resistive electrical switch was well known and predictable, and that it could be used in a pest control device. According to the Federal Circuit, the references that taught the hand-held devices showed that „the use of an animal body as a resistive switch to complete a circuit for the generation of an electric charge was already well known in the prior art.

Finally, the Federal Circuit noted that the problem solved by using the resistive electrical switch in the prior art hand-held devices — malfunction of mechanical switches due to dirt and dampness — also pertained to the prior art stationary pest control device. The Federal Circuit recognized Agrizap as „a textbook case of when the asserted claims involve a combination of familiar elements according to known methods that does no more than yield predictable results.

Agrizap exemplifies a strong case of obviousness based on simple substitution that was not overcome by the objective evidence of nonobviousness offered. The invention at issue in Muniauction, Inc.

Thomson Corp. A municipality could offer a package of bond instruments of varying principal amounts and maturity dates, and an interested buyer would then submit a bid comprising a price and interest rate for each maturity date. It was also possible for the interested buyer to bid on a portion of the offering. The claimed invention considered all of the noted parameters to determine the best bid.

It operated on conventional Web browsers and allowed participants to monitor the course of the auction. The only difference between the prior art bidding system and the claimed invention was the use of a conventional Web browser. Thomson argued that the claimed invention amounted to incorporating a Web browser into a prior art auction system, and was therefore obvious in light of KSR.

Muniauction rebutted the argument by offering evidence of skepticism by experts, copying, praise, and commercial success. Although the district court found the evidence to be persuasive of nonobviousness, the Federal Circuit disagreed.

It noted that a nexus between the claimed invention and the proffered evidence was lacking because the evidence was not coextensive with the claims at issue. The Federal Circuit analogized this case to Leapfrog Enters.

Fisher-Price, Inc. In Leapfrog, the court noted that market pressures would have prompted a person of ordinary skill to use modern electronics in the prior art device. Similarly in Muniauction, market pressures would have prompted a person of ordinary skill to use a conventional Web browser in a method of auctioning municipal bonds.

In Aventis Pharma Deutschland v. Lupin Ltd. The 5 S stereoisomer is one in which all five stereocenters in the ramipril molecule are in the S rather than the R configuration. A mixture of various stereoisomers including 5 S ramipril had been taught by the prior art.

The question before the court was whether the purified single stereoisomer would have been obvious over the known mixture of stereoisomers. The record showed that the presence of multiple S stereocenters in drugs similar to ramipril was known to be associated with enhanced therapeutic efficacy. For example, when all of the stereocenters were in the S form in the related drug enalapril SSS enalapril as compared with only two stereocenters in the S form SSR enalapril , the therapeutic potency was times as great.

There was also evidence to indicate that conventional methods could be used to separate the various stereoisomers of ramipril. The district court saw the issue as a close case, because, in its view, there was no clear motivation in the prior art to isolate 5 S ramipril. However, the Federal Circuit disagreed, and found that the claims would have been obvious. Requiring an explicit teaching to purify the 5 S stereoisomer from a mixture in which it is the active ingredient is precisely the sort of rigid application of the TSM test that was criticized in KSR.

The Aventis court also relied on the settled principle that in chemical cases, structural similarity can provide the necessary reason to modify prior art teachings.

The Federal Circuit also addressed the kind of teaching that would be sufficient in the absence of an explicitly stated prior art-based motivation, explaining that an expectation of similar properties in light of the prior art can be sufficient, even without an explicit teaching that the compound will have a particular utility.

In the chemical arts, the cases involving so-called „lead compounds“ form an important subgroup of the obviousness cases that are based on substitution. The Federal Circuit has had a number of opportunities since the KSR decision to discuss the circumstances under which it would have been obvious to modify a known compound to arrive at a claimed compound.

The following cases explore the selection of a lead compound, the need to provide a reason for any proposed modification, and the predictability of the result.

Eisai Co. Rabeprazole is a proton pump inhibitor for treating stomach ulcers and related disorders. Co-defendant Teva based its obviousness argument on the structural similarity between rabeprazole and lansoprazole. The compounds were recognized as sharing a common core, and the Federal Circuit characterized lansoprazole as a „lead compound.

The trifluoro substituent of lansoprazole was known to be a beneficial feature because it conferred lipophilicity to the compound.

The ability of a person of ordinary skill to carry out the modification to introduce the methoxypropoxy substituent, and the predictability of the result were not addressed.

Despite the significant similarity between the structures, the Federal Circuit did not find any reason to modify the lead compound. According to the Federal Circuit:. Obviousness based on structural similarity thus can be proved by identification of some motivation that would have led one of ordinary skill in the art to select and then modify a known compound i.

In keeping with the flexible nature of the obviousness inquiry, the requisite motivation can come from any number of sources and need not necessarily be explicit in the art. The prior art taught that introducing a fluorinated substituent was known to increase lipophilicity, so a skilled artisan would have expected that replacing the trifluoroethoxy substituent with a methoxypropoxy substituent would have reduced the lipophilicity of the compound.

Thus, the prior art created the expectation that rabeprazole would be less useful than lansoprazole as a drug for treating stomach ulcers and related disorders because the proposed modification would have destroyed an advantageous property of the prior art compound. The compound was not obvious as argued by Teva because, upon consideration of all of the facts of the case, a person of ordinary skill in the art at the time of the invention would not have had a reason to modify lansoprazole so as to form rabeprazole.

Office personnel are cautioned that the term „lead compound“ in a particular opinion can have a contextual meaning that may vary from the way a pharmaceutical chemist might use the term. In the field of pharmaceutical chemistry, the term „lead compound“ has been defined variously as „a chemical compound that has pharmacological or biological activity and whose chemical structure is used as a starting point for chemical modifications in order to improve potency, selectivity, or pharmacokinetic parameters;“ „[a] compound that exhibits pharmacological properties which suggest its development;“ and „a potential drug being tested for safety and efficacy.

The Federal Circuit in Eisai makes it clear that from the perspective of the law of obviousness, any known compound might possibly serve as a lead compound: „Obviousness based on structural similarity thus can be proved by identification of some motivation that would have led one of ordinary skill in the art to select and then modify a known compound i.

Thus, Office personnel should recognize that a proper obviousness rejection of a claimed compound that is useful as a drug might be made beginning with an inactive compound, if, for example, the reasons for modifying a prior art compound to arrive at the claimed compound have nothing to do with pharmaceutical activity. The inactive compound would not be considered to be a lead compound by pharmaceutical chemists, but could potentially be used as such when considering obviousness.

Office personnel might also base an obviousness rejection on a known compound that pharmaceutical chemists would not select as a lead compound due to expense, handling issues, or other business considerations. However, there must be some reason for starting with that particular lead compound other than the mere fact that the „lead compound“ exists. See Altana Pharma AG v. Teva Pharm. USA, Inc. Mylan Labs, Inc. Risedronate is an example of a bisphosphonate, which is a class of compounds known to inhibit bone resorption.

The prior art patent did not teach risedronate, but instead taught thirty-six other similar compounds including 2-pyr EHDP that were potentially useful with regard to osteoporosis. Teva argued obviousness on the basis of structural similarity to 2-pyr EHDP, which is a positional isomer of risedronate. The district court found no reason to select 2-pyr EHDP as a lead compound in light of the unpredictable nature of the art, and no reason to modify it so as to obtain risedronate.

In addition, there were unexpected results as to potency and toxicity. Therefore the district court found that Teva had not made a prima facie case, and even if it had, it was rebutted by evidence of unexpected results.

The Federal Circuit did not deem it necessary in this case to consider the question of whether 2-pyr EHDP had been appropriately selected as a lead compound. Rather, the Federal Circuit reasoned that, if 2-pyr EHDP is presumed to be an appropriate lead compound, there must be both a reason to modify it so as to make risedronate and a reasonable expectation of success.

Here, there was no evidence that the necessary modifications would have been routine, so there would have been no reasonable expectation of success. The Federal Circuit noted in dicta that even if a prima facie case of obviousness had been established, sufficient evidence of unexpected results was introduced to rebut such a showing. At trial, the witnesses consistently testified that the properties of risedronate were not expected, offering evidence that researchers did not predict either the potency or the low dose at which the compound was effective.

Tests comparing risedronate to a compound in the prior art reference showed that risedronate outperformed the other compound by a substantial margin, could be administered in a greater amount without an observable toxic effect, and was not lethal at the same levels as the other compound. The weight of the evidence and the credibility of the witnesses were sufficient to show unexpected results that would have rebutted an obviousness determination.

Thus, nonobviousness can be shown when a claimed invention is shown to have unexpectedly superior properties when compared to the prior art. The court then addressed the evidence of commercial success of risedronate and the evidence that risedronate met a long felt need.

The court emphasized that whether there was a long-felt but unsatisfied need is to be evaluated based on the circumstances as of the filing date of the challenged invention — not as of the date that the invention is brought to market. It should be noted that the lead compound cases do not stand for the proposition that identification of a single lead compound is necessary in every obviousness rejection of a chemical compound.

For example, one might envision a suggestion in the prior art to formulate a compound having certain structurally defined moieties, or moieties with certain properties. As a second example, it could be possible to view a claimed compound as consisting of two known compounds attached via a chemical linker. The claimed compound might properly be found to have been obvious if there would have been a reason to link the two, if one of ordinary skill would have known how to do so, and if the resulting compound would have been the predictable result of the linkage procedure.

Thus, Office personnel should recognize that in certain situations, it may be proper to reject a claimed chemical compound as obvious even without identifying a single lead compound. However, the case is instructive as to the issue of selecting a lead compound. Pantoprazole belongs to a class of compounds known as proton pump inhibitors that are used to treat gastric acid disorders in the stomach. Altana accused Teva of infringement. The claimed compound pantoprazole was structurally similar to compound The district court found that one of ordinary skill in the art would have selected compound 12 as a lead compound for modification, and the Federal Circuit affirmed.

Obviousness of a chemical compound in view of its structural similarity to a prior art compound may be shown by identifying some line of reasoning that would have led one of ordinary skill in the art to select and modify the prior art compound in a particular way to produce the claimed compound.

The necessary line of reasoning can be drawn from any number of sources and need not necessarily be explicitly found in the prior art of record. That finding was not clearly erroneous. The rationale to support a conclusion that the claim would have been obvious is that a method of enhancing a particular class of devices methods, or products has been made part of the ordinary capabilities of one skilled in the art based upon the teaching of such improvement in other situations. One of ordinary skill in the art would have been capable of applying this known method of enhancement to a „base“ device method, or product in the prior art and the results would have been predictable to one of ordinary skill in the art.

The Supreme Court in KSR noted that if the actual application of the technique would have been beyond the skill of one of ordinary skill in the art, then using the technique would not have been obvious.

The claimed invention in In re Nilssen, F. The prior art a USSR certificate described a device for protecting an inverter circuit in an undisclosed manner via a control means. The device indicated the high-load condition by way of the control means, but did not indicate the specific manner of overload protection.

The prior art Kammiller disclosed disabling the inverter in the event of a high-load current condition in order to protect the inverter circuit. That is, the overload protection was achieved by disabling the inverter by means of a cutoff switch. The court found „it would have been obvious to one of ordinary skill in the art to use the threshold signal produced in the USSR device to actuate a cutoff switch to render the inverter inoperative as taught by Kammiller.

That is, using the known technique of a cutoff switch for protecting a circuit to provide the protection desired in the inverter circuit of the USSR document would have been obvious to one of ordinary skill.

The nature of the problem to be solved may lead inventors to look at references relating to possible solutions to that problem.

Therefore, it would have been obvious to use a metal bracket as shown in Gregory with the screw anchor as shown in Fuller to underpin unstable foundations. The rationale to support a conclusion that the claim would have been obvious is that a particular known technique was recognized as part of the ordinary capabilities of one skilled in the art.

One of ordinary skill in the art would have been capable of applying this known technique to a known device method, or product that was ready for improvement and the results would have been predictable to one of ordinary skill in the art. The claimed invention in Dann v. Johnston, U. In this system, a customer would put a numerical category code on each check or deposit slip. The check processing system would record these on the check in magnetic ink, just as it does for amount and account information.

With this system in place, the bank can provide statements to customers that are broken down to give subtotals for each category. The claimed system also allowed the bank to print reports according to a style requested by the customer. In routine check processing, the system read any magnetic ink characters identifying the account and routing.

The system also read the amount of the check and then printed that value in a designated area of the check. The check was then sent through a further data processing step which used the magnetic ink information to generate the appropriate records for transactions and for posting to the appropriate accounts. These systems included generating periodic statements for each account, such as the monthly statement sent to checking account customers. Again, the category code will be a number recorded on the check or deposit slip which will be read, converted into a magnetic ink imprint, and then processed in the data system to include the category code.

This enabled reporting of data by category as opposed to only allowing reporting by account number. KNOWN TECHNIQUE – This is an application of a technique from the prior art — the use of account numbers generally used to track an individual’s total transactions to solve the problem of how to track categories of expenditures to more finely account for a budget.

That is, account numbers identifying data capable of processing in the automatic data processing system were used to distinguish between different customers. Furthermore, banks have long segregated debits attributable to service charges within any given separate account and have rendered their customers subtotals for those charges.

Previously, one would have needed to set up separate accounts for each category and thus receive separate reports. Supplementing the account information with additional digits the category codes solved the problem by effectively creating a single account that can be treated as distinct accounts for tracking and reporting services.

That is, the category code merely allowed what might previously have been separate accounts to be handled as a single account, but with a number of sub-accounts indicated in the report. The basic technique of putting indicia on data to enable standard sorting, searching, and reporting yielded no more than the predictable outcome which one of ordinary skill would have expected to achieve with this common tool of the trade and was therefore an obvious expedient.

The fact pattern in In re Nilssen, F. The known technique of using a cutoff switch would have predictably resulted in protecting the inverter circuit. Therefore, it would have been within the skill of the ordinary artisan to use a cutoff switch in response to the actuation signal to protect the inverter. The claimed invention in In re Urbanski, F. The claims were rejected over two references, wherein the primary reference, Gross, taught using a reaction time of 5 to 72 hours and the secondary reference, Wong, taught using a reaction time of to minutes, preferably minutes.

The applicant argued that modifying the primary reference in the manner suggested by the secondary reference would forego the benefits taught by the primary reference, thereby teaching away from the combination. The court found there was sufficient motivation to combine because both references recognized reaction time and degree of hydrolysis as result-effective variables, which can be varied to have a predictable effect on the final product; and the primary reference does not contain an express teaching away from the proposed modification.

The rationale to support a conclusion that the claim would have been obvious is that „a person of ordinary skill has good reason to pursue the known options within his or her technical grasp.

If this leads to the anticipated success, it is likely that product [was] not of innovation but of ordinary skill and common sense. The question of whether a claimed invention can be shown to be obvious based on an „obvious to try“ line of reasoning has been explored extensively by the Federal Circuit in several cases since the KSR decision.

The case law in this area is developing quickly in the chemical arts, although the rationale has been applied in other art areas as well. Some commentators on the KSR decision have expressed a concern that because inventive activities are always carried out in the context of what has come before and not in a vacuum, few inventions will survive scrutiny under an obvious to try standard.

The cases decided since KSR have proved this fear to have been unfounded. Courts appear to be applying the KSR requirement for „a finite number of identified predictable solutions“ in a manner that places particular emphasis on predictability and the reasonable expectations of those of ordinary skill in the art.

The Federal Circuit pointed out the challenging nature of the task faced by the courts — and likewise by Office personnel — when considering the viability of an obvious to try argument: „The evaluation of the choices made by a skilled scientist, when such choices lead to the desired result, is a challenge to judicial understanding of how technical advance is achieved in the particular field of science or technology.

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